Former president Donald Trump has the backing of more than half the residents in Missouri state, according to a poll conducted by St. Louis University in association with YouGov.
The survey found that 54 percent of Missourians would vote for Republican candidate Trump, while 41 per cent support would cast their ballot for his main rival, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
The August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll surveyed 900 likely Missouri voters about their opinions on a range of issues including the 2024 election, political issues facing the state and country, Missouri education issues, and matters being considered by the Missouri state government.
They pollsters reported the following findings when it comes to the Election 2024 statewide races:
- President: 54% Donald Trump; 41% Kamala Harris; 3% other; 2% not sure
- US Senator: 53% Josh Hawley; 42% Lucas Kunce; 0% other; 4% not sure
- Governor: 51% Mike Kehoe; 41% Crystal Quade; 3% other; 6% not sure
- Lt. Governor: 51% David Wasinger; 37% Richard Brown; 1% other; 11% not sure
- Attorney General: 51% Andrew Bailey; 38% Elad Gross; 1% other; 9% not sure
- Secretary of State: 54% Dennis Hoskins; 36% Barbara Phifer; 1% other; 9% not sure
- Treasurer: 52% Vivek Malek; 38% Mark Osmack; 1% other; 10% not sure
While the SLU/YouGov pollsters avoid giving a clear opinion on any of the issues they asked respondents about, they commented on some issues such as abortion, the Ukraine war and gun policy.
One of the most emotive issues in recent months has been that of the right to abortion, on which the pollsters said that seven states have “already expanded abortion access” via the ballot initiative following the overturning of the Roe-v-Wade decision.
Missouri’s Amendment 3 is one of 10 state-level abortion-related initiatives that will be on November ballots across the country. The SLU/YouGov Poll found that Amendment 3 is likely to pass. A “yes” vote basically would restore the right have abortions.
In the SLU/YouGov poll, 52% of Missouri likely voters supported Amendment 3, 34% opposed, and 14% were not sure.
However, Steven Rogers, PhD, SLU/YouGov opoll director and associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University, said: “Our more recent polling reflects an eight percentage-point increase in support for Amendment 3 since we asked the same question in February 2024.
“There were gains in support across men, women, Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters. If these trends continue, it looks like Amendment 3 will pass in Missouri.”
Meaning that there is growing support for legalizing abortion, which could account for an increase in support for Harris across the country.
Abortion became illegal in Missouri from 2022, after the Trump administration appointed anti-abortion judges to the Supreme Court.
Given that similar proportions of the population that support the right to abortion would also vote for Trump, it will be interesting to see how the conflict of interest plays out.
On the Ukraine war, 43% of Missouri voters agreed with the statement that the United States should provide Ukraine military aid in its conflict with Russia. However, 40% disagreed, bringing the difference within the margin of error of 5.3%. Seventeen percent were not sure.
On gun policy, the August survey found that voters wanted “some more regulations”, say the pollsters.
In 2023, the Missouri House voted 104-39 against a ban on minors carrying guns without adult supervision in public spaces.
However, in the August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll, 85% of Missouri likely voters favored such a ban. Nine percent opposed, and 6% reported being not sure.
Seventy-nine percent of voters also reported favoring criminal background checks for all those buying guns, including those bought at gun shows and private sales, which is the same percentage of voters that favored this policy in the February 2023 SLU/YouGov Poll.
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