Violent crime in the United States fell sharply in 2025, according to new preliminary data released by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, with murders dropping by an estimated 18.1 percent nationwide.
If the figures are confirmed in final reporting, analysts say the country could record one of the lowest homicide rates in modern American history.
The FBI’s latest estimates also showed broad declines across nearly every major crime category.
Overall violent crime fell an estimated 9.3 percent compared with 2024, while robbery declined 18.5 percent and aggravated assault fell 7.2 percent. Reported rapes were down 7.6 percent, according to the federal data.
Property crime also decreased by an estimated 12.4 percent.
The figures were reported by Stateline, part of the States Newsroom network.
Crime rates continue post-pandemic decline
The new numbers continue a broader trend that has emerged since the spike in violence seen during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many major American cities experienced rising homicide rates in 2020 and 2021 amid social disruption, economic uncertainty and strained police-community relations.
Since then, however, violent crime has steadily declined across much of the country.
The FBI said the latest estimates are based on information submitted by more than 17,000 law enforcement agencies covering roughly 96 percent of the US population.
More than 15,000 agencies submitted information through the National Incident-Based Reporting System, known as NIBRS, which became the FBI’s primary national crime reporting system in 2021.
Unlike older reporting methods, NIBRS collects more detailed information about incidents, victims and offenders.
Analysts cautiously optimistic
The FBI data also aligns with projections from the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan research organization that earlier this year forecast that 2025 could ultimately record the nation’s lowest homicide rate in more than 100 years.
Researchers have pointed to several possible explanations for the decline, including stabilization following the pandemic, improved economic conditions in some areas, expanded violence-prevention programs and changes in policing strategies.
However, experts caution that crime trends can fluctuate significantly over time and vary widely between cities and regions.
The FBI also noted that participation in its national reporting system remains voluntary, meaning the figures only reflect crimes reported to police agencies participating in the program.
Public concern about crime nevertheless remains politically influential across the United States, even as national statistics show substantial declines in violent offenses.
The story was originally reported by Stateline, part of the States Newsroom network, which includes Missouri Independent.
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